A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. They composes two essays that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will win here and the other side will eventually be defeated but all factions has got something to acquire from the alternative positions."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
